yes!!

I have always wanted to write something positive about Najib for a very long long time. Now comes an opportunity. Ada bau politik tak ? Tak kot. Kajang Move la sangat, now sapa yang terkedu ? Jangan politik ya. Ini pasal air. AIR.

mogok

this blog will stay dormant for as long as Datuk A Kadir Jasin's blog remains locked and blocked!!!

tanam kangkung rapat-rapat

Dah lama dah nak tulis pasal kangkung tapi tak tertulis-tulis. Nah, ini pasal kangkung.

Ngkorang suka kangkung dalam burger ? Takde daging, he he he ..

Aku suka makan kangkung ? Tak ada lah sangat. Biasa-biasa ja. Membesar di kampung, kangkung adalah hidangan bukan istimewa atau luar-biasa. Gado-gado adalah satu hidangan yang aku pernah belajar buat, menggunakan kangkung. Takdaklah sedap mana pun.

Pertama kali aku menjejakkan kaki ke KL, rata-rata depa jual nasi lemak pakai kangkung. Aku rasa itu kombinasi yang sangat pelik. Tapi la ni dah tak pernah jumpa dah. Mungkin tak dapat bertahan, pasal rasa dia pun tak kena. Lagi satu, daripada ilmu masak-memasak yang Mak aku ajar, kangkung ni tak dimasak bersantan. Kalau buat sayur air makan dengan nasi putih dan kari ikan, itu ok. So, kalau nasi lemak, kan bersantan. Mungkin itu penjelasan mengapa nasi lemak berkangkung pupus sebelum terbudaya.

lebih-kurang macam ni

Ni nak cerita pasal kangkung dalam politik. Pertengahan Januari 2014, pecah episod kangkung bila Najib buat statement bodoh pasal kangkung. Najib suruh rakyat puji kerajaan bila harga kangkung turun. Kenyataan itu dibuat di kemuncak keluh-kesah rakyat bahawa harga barang umumnya naik dan kerajaan Najib dipersalahkan. Lepas itu bermulalah rentetan ejekan dan tempelak yang bertali-temali.

Ingatkan lepas tu, dah surut cerita kangkung ni.

Rupanya tidak. Terbaru cerita kangkung ini diperpanjangkan lagi. Kali ini oleh McDonald's, rangkaian restoran makanan segera milik Vincent Tan yang berebut-rebut dan bangga rakyat Malaysia dapat makan di situ (tidak termasuk aku). Ha kau !

Tak habis-habis. Rata-rata rakyat masih sinikal terhadap kenyataan bodoh Najib itu. Secara peribadi, aku hairan macam mana Najib boleh tersebut benda bodoh macam gitu. Kenapa aku kata bodoh. Sebab aku tahu bahawa kerajaan Najib mempunyai kuasa dan bertanggungan untuk mengawal harga barang daripada naik-turun yang merimaskan. Apa itu bukan dasar-dasar polisi kerajaan Najib ke ? Kalau tidak masakan pak-pak menteri turun padang terjun bukit masuk kampung terjun paya  pi pantau harga sana-sini ? So, kalau dah melampau-lampau sangat harga naik, naik naik dan naik, tentulah rakyat marah. Kalau Najib tahu, faham, prihatin, insaf akan keluh-kesah rakyat, dan bahawa rakyat tengah panas, Najib tidak akan terbuat kenyataan macam "sekarang, harga kangkung dah turun, kenapa tak puji kerajaan ?" Whoa !!! Lagi nak puji-pujian ke ??? Tanggungjawab pun tak lepas.

imej ini panjang dan berantai..

Apa yang aku nak cakap pasal episod kangkung ini ialah, sebelum episod, aku rasa menyampah giler dengan Najib. Tapi lepas episod dan Najib ditaruk kaw kaw, rasa kesian pulak dekat dia. Muka dia macam loser gitu. Aku rasa sedih. Ha ha ha !  Ha, sekarang taruk lagi cukup-cukup. Kutuk lagi rapat-rapat.

Kenapa Najib pilih kangkung ??? Wrong choice again. Bahawa Big Mac burger boleh jadi satu indeks untuk ukur kekuatan matawang sesebuah negara, itu semua orang tahu. Ia bukan satu lelucuan kosong. Sebabnya McD telah menjadi jenama seantero dunia. Tapi, nak jadikan kangkung sebagai indeks barangan kepenggunaan di Malaysia sahaja pun tak lepas. Sebab kangkung bukanlah item yang cukup sifat untuk jadi indeks. So Najib kenalah hati-hati. Sebab dia PM, bukan orang biasa. Bukan senang nak jadi PM,  nu ? Sebab setiap kenyataan bodoh PM akan diperhalusi dan diridiculed pada setiap kesempatan yang tiba-tiba muncul.

Hee .. tak sabar nak tunggu apa kebodohan seterusnya.

Akhir kalam, terimalah pantun

              tanam kangkung rapat-rapat

           

err.. (tak jadi nak habiskan pantun) sebenarnya yang rapat-rapat tu depa tak tanam kot. Depa tabog biji benih ja. Sebab tu boleh jadi rapat-rapat tu. Kalau aku tanam kangkung, pakai batang ja. Tak jadi rapat macam tu.

tanya sama pokok

Nape ek ? Si Hindraf tu letak jawatan. Taib Mahmud pun letak jawatan. Katanya MY pun nak letak jawatan. Eee apa ni ? And then there's the underpinning Kajang constituency dumping and subsequent by-election. Sungguh-sungguh membodohkan. Apa gerangan isunya, atau memang sudah resmi tempua bersarang rendah.

gambar ni amek kat internet ler.. 

the tactful peony

the peony

It's the Chinese New Year. Keep a watch over tactfulness at this blog as the year passes by.

Yes, I'll apply more tact, thank you.

#

What do I know about politics ? Next to nothing. I read it today that Kajang ADUN has resigned to pave way for Anwar to contest in the by-election. Yes, PKR is bringing Khalid Gagap (kena strike out perkataan gagap ni sebab ada orang marah giler. Anyway I just checked out, Khalid indeed stutters, cuba ngkorang check kat sini . http://my.news.yahoo.com/video/khalid-kajang-folks-anwar-best-074034262.html) down from MB post, and Anwar will be the new MB. Datuk Kadir wrote about it in his latest posting. Or rather, his writing conjures the idea that this scenario is possible.

Mengabihkan duit je kan ? Suka-suka mau resign, tak payah bagi reason, pas tu buat by-election.

Aku rasa Khalid ok ja sebagai MB Selangor (walaupun aku meluat kat PKR). Sayang kan ? Orang yang ok dijatuhkan disebabkan politiking. Ko nak jumpa satu Melayu yang ok pun payah. Ini dah jumpa, dikorbankan pula.

Ini yang paling hensem gambar yang aku jumpa. 

Rambutnya mengerbang dan mukanya sebek macam ada masalah besar.

PKR ni sensasi betul. Baru pegang sikit kuasa, dah bergaduh pulak. Itulah, tak pernah nak kritik kepimpinan mereka. Pandai kutuk orang saja. Ini belum campur sensasi Izzah dan divorce proceedingsnya. Tak baiklah kan, cerita rumahtangga orang. Diri kita sendiri pun belum tentu bagus. Tapi dalam politics, all is fair. Taruk  depa cukup-cukup.

the kangkung episode (updated)

is still unfolding as at time of republication.

  

the not-so-sovereign RM

You can download the full testimony from here. QE3 meaning here.

January 9, 2014
Federal Reserve Policy and Emerging Markets

Prepared statement by
Dr. Benn Steil
Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations;
Author of The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order

Before the Committee on Financial Services; Subcommittee on Monetary Policy and Trade
United States House of Representatives
2nd Session, 113th Congress

Thank you Chairman Campbell, Ranking Member Clay, and members of the Subcommittee for the opportunity to present to you this morning my views on the effect of U.S. monetary policy actions on emerging markets.

The U.S. dollar plays a unique role in the global economy. Though the United States accounts for only 23% of global output, the dollar accounts for over 60% of global foreign exchange reserves and 75% of global imports from countries other than the United States. For emerging markets in particular, economic interaction with the wider world takes place overwhelmingly in dollars. Changes in the stance of U.S. monetary policy can have a significant impact on emerging-market capital inflows and outflows, and the resulting exchange rate movements against the dollar can have large and rapid effects on the level of inflation and exports. Monetary sovereignty in such countries is therefore often more symbolic than real. Ecuador and El Salvador, recognizing this reality, went so far as to eliminate their national currencies entirely in 2000 and 2001, and now use the U.S. dollar domestically in the same way that we do here in the United States.

Since the financial crisis in 2008, actions taken by the Federal Reserve to increase liquidity in the U.S. financial system have had a major impact outside the borders of the United States. Quantitative easing, through which the Fed increases the monetary base by buying longer-term financial assets with newly conjured dollars, thereby pushing down their yield, was undertaken partly to encourage, and indeed has encouraged, investors to shift resources into riskier assets. Though wholly unintended by the Fed, however, this shift has at times encompassed the bonds and stocks of emerging-market countries.

A recent International Monetary Fund study found that the Fed's first round of quantitative easing from January 2009 to March 2010 resulted in $250 billion being withdrawn from emerging-market bond markets (under the logic that QE would drive the U.S. out of recession), while QE3 had the opposite effect, causing $91 billion to flow in (as U.S. asset prices had turned frothy). The net effect of so-called “Unconventional Monetary Policy” in the U.S., U.K., Japan, and Europe on emerging-market bond flows since 2008 has been trivial: a mere 0.22% of GDP.[1] The volatility of such flows, however, with its attendant effects on currency, trade, and investment, has been considerable.

Anticipation of the Fed’s withdrawal from QE3, though it will only begin with a modest tapering of monthly asset purchases this month, has already had a substantial impact on the currency and bond markets of a number of important emerging-market economies – in particular, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and Brazil. My own analysis with Dinah Walker has found that the hardest-hit countries have been those running large current account deficits – countries which had been comfortably financing excesses of consumption over production for several years with dollars scouring the globe in search of return.[2] Economic growth in such countries and the investment returns coming with it, reliant as they have been on short-term capital flows from abroad, have always been the most at risk of a change in the trajectory of Fed policy from accommodation to tightening.
[1] "Global Impact and Challenges of Unconventional Monetary Policies,” IMF Policy Paper,
       October 7, 2013.
[2] http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303914304579193901796521312?
     KEYWORDS=benn+steil

Figure 1: Countries with large current account deficits have experienced the largest currency depreciations since the start of taper talk in May
Data sources: International Monetary Fund and Bloomberg.[Figure Missing]

Figure 2: Bond yields have also climbed in countries with large current account deficits
Data source: Bloomberg [Figure Missing]
*Because of missing data, Brazil chart shows 10-year bond yield through July 2, 2013 and 9-year bond yield thereafter.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s carefully worded statement on the future of the Fed’s asset purchase program last May, widely interpreted in the markets as an indication that a taper might begin as early as September, unleashed a wave of selling in these countries’ bonds and currencies. Taper talk was particularly traumatic for India, where the central bank was obliged to raise interest rates to counter capital outflows and imported inflation from a plummeting rupee, despite the country's slowing growth.

So how can emerging markets protect themselves in advance of a tightening of Fed policy? The IMF study found that countries with a lower share of foreign ownership of domestic assets, a trade surplus, and large foreign-exchange reserves have been more resilient; they have experienced far less volatility in their currency and domestic asset markets.

This has policy implications: In good times, developing countries should apply a firm hand to keep their imports and currency down, and their exports and dollar reserves up.

Unfortunately, such policies are apt to constitute what many observers in this country would call “currency manipulation.” Economists Jared Bernstein and Dean Baker recently called for the United States to impose taxes on foreign holdings of Treasurys and tariffs on imports precisely to counteract them.[3] This is, in my view, a misguided recipe for raising global trade tensions and political conflict. But the very fact that prominent commentators are calling for such action illustrates the importance of considering how the functioning, or malfunctioning, of the global monetary system can encourage a spiral of damaging policy actions. China’s agreements with Brazil, Russia, Turkey, and Japan to move away from dollar-based trade, for example, have the potential to undermine the multilateral trading system, as countries that don’t want to stockpile each other’s currencies will use trade discrimination to prevent trade imbalances.

So what can be done?

International central bank cooperation can help at the margins by mitigating short-term liquidity problems, most notably through currency swap arrangements. The Federal Reserve recently made permanent the previously ad hoc arrangements with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and the Swiss National Bank. (The Fed extended swap lines to Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Singapore in October 2008, but these arrangements were allowed to expire in 2010.) Initiatives within the Asia-Pacific region have received much attention, but to date have been more for public display than for actual sharing of reserves or lending of local currency.[4]Not surprisingly, governments in the region are hesitant to extend credit to each other in a crisis, which is the only time it is actually needed.
Regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy actions, anything that makes them more predictable will, all else being equal, attenuate market volatility globally. Over the past fifteen months, the Fed has tried to do this through the formal use of so-called forward guidance. Initially, this was implemented through the setting of date-based markers for the raising of interest rate targets. These were quickly abandoned, however, in favor of data-based markers for both the raising of interest rate targets and the tapering of monthly asset purchase.

[3] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/07/opinion/taking-aim-at-the-wrong-deficit.html
[4] http://www.voxeu.org/article/chiang-mai-initiative-designed-not-be-used purchases.

Both approaches are challenging to carry out in practice.

Date-based guidance is problematic in that date markers are ultimately justified by the Fed’s expectations of economic conditions years into the future, and, as I have documented elsewhere, the Fed’s forecasting record over the past quarter century has been poor.[5]
Data-based guidance can also create rather than reduce market turbulence when the data markers themselves are volatile, such as monthly employment figures. Asset purchases in particular are not a precision tool, so trying to calibrate them continuously to volatile economic data is fraught with difficulties.[6] It is worth recalling that Chairman Bernanke had in June suggested that asset purchases would end with the unemployment rate at around 7 percent; in fact, tapering is only now just starting with unemployment at this level.[7] Assuming the Fed had good reason to abandon the chairman’s June guidance, it would have been advisable not to issue it in the first place. Finally, it should be noted that the Fed has been unsuccessful in persuading markets that a tapering of asset purchases would not in itself merit materially higher Treasury bond and mortgage rates – the latter of which rocketed in June to levels a full percentage point above those prevailing when QE3 was initiated in September of 2012 with the aim of reducing them.

New ideas for Fed data-targeting abound. Since 2009, there has been a notable coalescing of economic commentators on the left and right of the spectrum around the belief that both U.S. and global economic stability would be well served by a new rules-based approach to monetary-policy making that would commit the Federal Reserve to targeting the level of nominal spending, or NGDP (nominal gross domestic product), rather than, say, inflation. The technical merits of such a regime notwithstanding, it is my belief that the consensus supporting it will melt away the moment a future NGDP reading suggests that policy should be tightened in an environment of contained inflation and/or elevated unemployment, which it invariably will at some point.[8]

In short, rules, targets, and forward guidance for U.S. monetary-policy action will not significantly mitigate the challenges that emerging markets will face going forward in adapting to market perturbations triggered by such action, or inaction. Broadly speaking, the inevitable inconsistency that will open up between the Fed’s rules, targets, and guidance, on the one hand, and unexpected economic developments, on the other, will lead either to inappropriate policy stances or a falling away of the credibility of such rules, targets, and guidance as they are abandoned or amended.

[5]http://www.cfr.org/monetary-policy/why-we-cant-believe-fed/p27425
[6] http://www.cfr.org/monetary-policy/bernanke-calibrating-markets-into-fits/p31040
[7] http://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20130619.pdf
[8] http://www.cfr.org/monetary-policy/facts-change-change-my-target-you-sir/p30584

It is therefore in our national interest to accept, openly, that emerging-market governments be able to implement prudent controls on short-term portfolio inflows in order to shield their economies from sudden, extreme, and unpredictable shocks, some of which may be triggered by decisions of our own Federal Reserve, taken in good-faith pursuit of the mandates assigned to it by Congress. Chile, which has been a model of prudent macroeconomic management over many years, used modest one-year unremunerated reserve requirements on capital inflows with some apparent success during the crisis-marked 1990s.[9] As major serial foreign financial crises over the past four decades have illustrated, we here in the United States also bear real costs when overexposed and underprotected banks and governments find themselves, in the face of rapid and large-scale shifts in the flows of capital internationally, quite suddenly unable to pay their bills.

I thank you again for the opportunity to participate in these important discussions here today.

[9] http://www.voxeu.org/article/do-capital-controls-work

End of testimony.


Ini adalah siri posting : Bab Yang Hilang

Bolehkah satu bentuk penjajahan halus dicapai melalui perhubungan monetari/kewangan/perdagangan antarabangsa ? Satu bentuk perhambaan ekonomi ke atas majoriti dunia yang dungu. Atau ada sekelompok yang sedar, tetapi sudah terlalu selesa untuk meninggalkan keselesaan itu.

ya Allah, funnynyer...

Menteri dalam sos ketum. Sapa punya idea ni ? ha ha ha... gelak pecah perut. Gambar ni I amek dari Another Brick, ok ?


Ini adalah siri posting : Impromptu

Kalau terjumpa benda menarik, dan rasa ianya patut mendapat Hanezam's Mention, teruslah buat satu posting mengejut macam ni. Ada orang sanggup makan ke, menteri dalam sos ketum ni ? He he he ..

cabaran globalisasi

Kadang-kadang aku wonder apa terjadi pada tok-tok imam yang berserban/berjanggut bila depa buka yahoo homepage depa dan depa tertengok pada gambar-gambar bogel atau 95% bogel ? Contohnya hari ini, gambar mak Kim Kardashian terbaring dengan hanya pakai bikini. He he he... buruk yagmat yagmat. Mak Kim Kardashian ni umurnya muda 4 tahun sahaja daripada umur Mak aku. Memang tak malu betul. Persoalan penting : Adakah tok-tok imam itu akan klik dekat gambar tersebut ?

Maaf, gambar mak Kim Kardashian tersebut tak boleh dimasukkan dalam blog ini, kerana rupanya sangat buruk.

Ini adalah siri posting : Release Tension Sekejap

Kata orang, banyak udang banyaklah garamnya. Banyak udang bersembunyi di balik batu. Bongkok udang pula sedikit bahaya. Harga udang di pasar Seremban sekarang lebih kurang RM45 sekilo. Yang mahal lagi, tak mampulah. Ni semua tak lain Najib punya pasal. Orang nak release tension sekejap pun tak boleh. 

this downward spiral..

I wasn't playful when I said Najib was trying to emulate ('to ape' would be a more appropriate verb) the US style of government. Do you believe it is a coincidence that our national debt is increasing alarmingly in the trend that the US national debt has sky-rocketed ? Some 'new economics' proponents believe that a deficit balance of payments account is nothing to worry about. That's why Najib is not worried ? Honestly I don't know. This is just a 'thinking aloud' kind of a post.

In  deficit spending and credit expansionist policies, inflation is caused by the government's intervention in the monetary relations. Inflation is an increase in quantity of money in circulation that surpasses the demand for money for cash holding. Inflation will cause depreciation of the purchasing power of the nation's monetary unit and this in turn will cause an increased demand for foreign exchange. Similarly, the government's policy of lowering the market rate of interest will also cause a demand for foreign exchange.

Have you noticed occurences of new RM100 notes in circulation lately ? I have not, but I read somewhere someone made that remark, that new RM100 notes are in circulation 20 times as before.

Inflationism cannot last.  Inflation has to stop, or the monetary system is doomed. We don't practise pure capitalism.  The market will not correct itself to regain new equilibrium.

Ever wondered why it's getting too volatile ?


Question : Will the Bank Negara Malaysia disclose to me all the relevant facts and figures if I were  to request for them in a letter ? I envy those with influence, who need only text the right person for the required info to fill in their piece.


Ini adalah siri posting : Menyampah Dengan Najib

Dah tak rasa nak muntah ? Anda tak rasa loya lagi sebab semua angin dah keluar. Sekarang masanya untuk berfikir dan luahkan secara lebih rasional dan cari jalan keluar. Bukan untuk diri sendiri semata-mata tetapi untuk semua orang. 

Setahun Jagung Peradaban Bangsaku

Melatari demografi Malaysia hari ini adalah tiga bangsa yang utama. Melayu sebagai bumiputera yang dipersiapkan dengan keistimewaan di bawah Perlembagaan, kaum Cina yang memegang bahagian terbesar ekonomi negara, dan juga bangsa India, yang juga tidak ada keistimewaan perlembagaan dan rata-rata bermasalah ekonomi seperti Melayu.

Berapa tahun sudah kita merdeka ? Baru 56 tahun. Tapi pencapaian Malaysia di tahap dunia sudah hebat (tapi perlu diperhebat). Usia Melayu  berpentadbiran baru 56 tahun. Kita tiada pengalaman itu sebelum ini. Ingat lagi, dalam novel Interlok, apabila masyarakat Cina memasuki Tanah Melayu, mereka memanggil orang Melayu sebahai huan na. Kalau tak silap, maksudnya 'tinggal atas pokok'. Jangan nak marah pulak. Mesti istilah itu terbit kerana keadaan semasa pada masa itu. Dah betul la kot nenek moyang ketika pada masa itu masih duduk atas pokok. Tetapi selepas merdeka bangsa Melayu sudah jadi pentadbir yang hebat-hebat. Ini kerana kita ada pemimpin-pemimpin yang berwawasan, seperti Tun Razak misalnya. Kenapa tak nak nampak kekuatan kita sendiri ?

Dulu nenek moyang kita tidak tahu apa-apa tentang hak-hak kenegaraan. Mereka lihat sahaja bila orang putih hangkut hasil-mahsul negara. Ada lah yang menentang, tapi rata-rata aku rasa depa tengok sahaja berputih mata. Depa rasa memang hak orang putih tu nak angkut apa sahaja dari bumi ini. Panas lah jugak kan, kalau fikir nenek moyang kita dulu macam ni. Tapi nasiblah kita ada pemimpin macam Datuk Onn. Dan ramai lagi yang tak tersebut.

Anda percaya bukan, kita mewarisi pengetahuan dan kepakaran nenek moyang kita. Karakteristik dan kepakaran nenek moyang kita ada dalam DNA kita.  China adalah satu bangsa yang berperadaban semenjak zaman sebelum Muhammad saw lagi. Buku ilmu strategi perang Tsun Zu ditulis 500 tahun Sebelum Masihi. Mereka telah melalui pelbagai Dinasti. Seperti catatan Tun Dr M, dan aku setuju, bangsa China yang hidup hari ini adalah berketurunan daripada nenek moyang yang cekal gagah berani tahan diuji. Ini adalah kerana saban tahun  negara China dilanda banjir besar. Maka setelah tapisan tahun demi tahun, yang masih hidup adalah mereka yang daripada baka yang paling tahan diuji. Di dalam DNA depa dah ada kepakaran berperang, berniaga, merasuah kerajaan dan sebagainya. Kepakaran itu depa bawak bersama darah-dagin mereka semasa mereka migrasi ke Tanah Melayu. Depa masuk petempatan Melayu dan mula berniaga. Melayu bergantung kepada peniaga Cina untuk bekalkan barangan keperluan. Hal berniaga memang tak ada dalam otak nenek moyang kita masa tu. Melayu masa tu tak tau apa-apa pasal hal-hal tanah. Bila tak dak duit depa pi gadai janji dengan tokey Cina. Lepas tu tanah pun lesap. 

Di India juga adala tamadun Indus jadi aku rasa depa pun ada pengetahuan-pengetahuan asas klasik itu, walaupun tak begitu jelas di kalangan mereka yang datang berhijrah ke sini. 

Apa yang kita orang-orang Melayu pandai sekarang ini, adalah daripada dasar-dasar kerajaan selepas kita merdeka. Bayangkan betapa cepat kita belajar. Cina dan India sudah ada benda-benda itu beribu-ribu thaun sebelum kita di dalam darah-daging mereka. Jadi kenapa masih rasa Melayu tak hebat ? 

Nanti sambung lagi.


Ini adalah siri posting :  Menyusun Seroja

Malayu adalah satu bangsa yang hebat. Siri posting Menyusun Seroja adalah untuk mengabadikan kehebatan-kehebatan itu buat tatapan masa hadapan. Cee wah ambitiousnyer.... Takpa, I cuba, ok ? 

peliknya pemimpinku

Seperti biasa, kita hanya melepas geram. Anda perasan atau tidak, Datuk A Kadir Jasin dah berpatah arang dan makin brutal. Hari-hari Najib kena bambu. Datuk A Kadir Jasin sangat sayangkan negaranya. Sebab tu dia tak senang duduk. Sedangkan aku, aku hanya mahukan perubahan yang cepat, tetapi tidak pula mengambil tindakan positif.

Yang aku hairan kenapa Tun Dr M diam, Muhyiddin pun diam. Apa dah jadi ? Rakyat seperti aku jadi hairan bin ajaib. Hanya blogger-blogger yang begitu vokal. 

bagus untuk pelawasan

Hairan sungguh kita. Nak tunggu sampai bila ? UMNO ni, isu yang sangat relevan tidak disentuh langsung. Buat don't know ja. Buat perangai syok sendiri. Bahaya tau, sikap macam tu. Pengundi macam aku boleh fed up. Kau cubalah bayangkan apa orang macam aku boleh buat kalau kami fed up.



Ini adalah siri posting : Menyampah Dengan Najib

Anda rasa nak muntah ? Naik loya ? Anda tertanya-tanya : apa nak jadi dengan negara ini ? Awat jadi macam ni ? Menteri-menteri dah tak boleh beza tugas-tugas kementerian (ministerial) dan dengan senangnya fungsi kerajaan didelegasi kepada anak-bini tanpa delegasi yang sah dalam pentadbiran kenegaraan.

Eye On Izzah

Am keeping an eye on Nurul. Liked her on Facebook for  tracking of her activities. A young person of that kind of motivation should work for an organisation with power. She's powerless thanks to her association with PKR.

Or I could be wrong. The total dysfunction of UMNO may lend total support of the Malays towards PKR, and PKR takes over. And to think PKR and not PAS..

My Najib

Najib after the much-talked-about transformation

I see and read Najib as someone steep in the US style of government. Whatever Obama does, he wants to emulate. The US is going bankrupt, still he sees there's a lot to copy from them. He employs so many consultants from overseas and spent billions on them. We also know they give him crap in return. We locals are no longer good enough for the job. What's the use of so many PTDs ? What's the use of our Majlis Professor Negara ?  Why does he need so many advisors ? I know during Dr M's time, he (Dr M) listened to people but he made his own informed decisions. Whereas Najib, he can easily be hijacked by these scheming people surrounding him.  Sorry I can't help comparing him with Dr M. I compare him with my beloved Dr M all the time. More so now, after Dr M being hospitalised and discharged. I am worried sick about everything Najib right now.

i jumpa gambar ni kat nernet ok. jom share

gambar ni macam ungkapkan keterbukuan dalam hatiku masa kini

Yuna - Rescue

looking for reforms

My notes :-

• Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility - Atish R Ghosh & 2 Ors
• Choice of exchange rate regime - earlier the conventional wisdom was to choose either  hard peg or the float, and to avoid the intermediate - this is known as the bipolar prescription. The intermediate is most prone to crisis
• After 10-15 years, Argentina collapse 2002, Emerging Europe crisis, so is hard peg really good thing ?
• When do we change regime ?
• What is free float ? No government intervention
• 
  

Black Swans in my answer script

bank notes

multiplier effect and the money supply

Fractional Reserve Banking

Will Najib please step down

I have not been blogging political things for a long long time, and when I come back to do it, it has to be this

WILL NAJIB PLEASE PLEASE STEP DOWN !!
or answer all those allegations.

Interview : the Dispute Settlement System

My Notes :

• Prof John H. Jackson is an influential scholar in the realm of international trade particularly in WTO's DSS
• WTO's DSS is the most powerful dispute settlement system at the international level (and the success of this power of DSS has attracted its usage to a point of it being a threat to its own success)
• Q : With Doha Round impasse, it is possible that what DSS is doing now amount to legislating through the judiciary ? (Note that the judicial powers of WTO are expressed thru its Dispute Settlement Body. From here) A : There's a risk, but it is not yet happening. 
• Q : Protectionism policy - 3% of world import are now affected - is it a threat, coz it may get the system clogged with cases, making people wonder if the system is indeed sustainable ? A: I don't think it is that dangerous a situation. There has been quite a remarkable hesitation to give too much protectionism. The success of the system can be attributed to the system's holding back too much protection.  On the other hand we could also be on the verge of something more mean. That, we have to watch out.  
• Read more on protectionism. Notes later.  

• Emergence of 21st century issues such as investment, climate change, environmental, internet commerce, these issues may be brought before the DSS - these cases are coming to DSS, competence of the system, providing business efficacy factors such as predictability, but may be hindered by failure to get decisions among members due to consensus rules
• environmental issues, financial regulations - these areas, interaction to trade area   
• He mentions WTO's legalistic approach. What does it mean ? Read here. 

• "The WTO has introduced a more legalistic approach to trade dispute settlement than its predecessor GATT. In GATT, because of the absence of paper machinery for dispute settlement, disputes look long to clear. This also mean, however, that GATT required more diplomacy than law to settle disputes. This at least ensured that all concerns were fully ventilated before a settlement could be reached. The price for ensuring justice was delay and often non-implementation of the agreements reached.

• "The WTO has changed  all that. It has introduced a remarkably efficient and predictable legal system of DS with a built-in mechanism for sanctions and procedures for cross-sectoral retaliation. This is regarded generally as one of the more positive aspects of the WTO system. Disputes can, in theory, be brought to WTO panels for (relatively) speedy dispensation of settlement."

• In other international fora, why can't they have a dss that is as effective as WTO's DSS ? In GATT panel  ruling the person, in the wrong can block the ruling, in the middle 80's the reverse consensus but remedied during the Uruguay Round they failure succeeded where - consensus vote - elaborate procedure of uneasiness of states began to change unilateral, the rate of compliance is remarkably high
• failure to arrive at decisions in commerce 
• trade disputes airline cases flow into politics 
• improving the DSS, how ?
• hormon-treated beef issue, US vs EU; read here
• Boeng vs Airbus saga, read here
• Banana issue, read here
• Q : Regional negotiations and bilateral undertakings, are they  a threat to the multilateral trading system ? They are all heading towards free trade. The subset of the world, they can tailor the already existing rules of WTO eg rules of decision making, ie WTO plus or WTO minus.   

What Will Happen After US Dollar Collapse

What the Economic Crisis Really Means - and what we can do about it

Network - (1976) "I'm as mad as hell" speech

Found it. It was a snippet from Network, produced in 1976. Isn't it rather spooky ?

Farm Subsidies For The Rich?

The Problem with Subsidies

WTO Agreement on Agriculture and Its Impact on Economics in South Asia

International Monetary System - New Economic Slavery

Stumbled upon this, and the intro proves quite interesting. It's 51 minutes long. Recommended on sleepless nights :-).

How do the WTO, World Bank and IMF work?

Susan George explains what the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) are and how they work. They operate in the interests of rich nations at the expense of the poor. She cautions against the current trend to privatise public services such as transport, health and water.

FER

From here

Definition of 'Floating Exchange Rate'

A country's exchange rate regime where its currency is set by the foreign-exchange market through supply and demand for that particular currency relative to other currencies. Thus, floating exchange rates change freely and are determined by trading in the forex market. This is in contrast to a "fixed exchange rate" regime

Investopedia explains 'Floating Exchange Rate'

In some instances, if a currency value moves in any one direction at a rapid and sustained rate, central banks intervene by buying and selling its own currency reserves (i.e. Federal Reserve in the U.S.) in the foreign-exchange market in order to stabilize the local currency. However, central banks are reluctant to intervene, unless absolutely necessary, in a floating regime.

termination of gold/dollar convertability

From here 

1971 Termination of Gold/Dollar Convertability

SUMMARY:

Richard Nixon's August 1971 decision to suspend the convertibility of dollars into gold was one of the most important chapters in modern economic history. Nixon's move, which was precipitated by rising U.S. balance of payments deficits, ended the system of fixed exchange rates that had been established at the Bretton Woods conference of 1944 and ushered in a regime of floating rates.

DESCRIPTION:

The 1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Act created a set of institutional changes designed to help Congress regain power over the budget process. The Act was inspired by Richard Nixon's refusal to disburse nearly $12 billion of congressionally-appropriated funds in 1973-74 through the executive power of impoundment, as well as more generalized fears about the budget deficit. Nixon claimed that the deficit was causing high inflation and that as a result he needed to curb government spending. To this effect, in the 1972 presidential election he called on Congress to grant the President authority to cut federal spending so as to keep the budget under control. Congress opposed Nixon's proposal and instead sought to reform Congress' budgetary role. In 1972 Congress created a Joint Study Committee on Budget Control which called for procedural reforms to enable Congress to examine the federal budget from an "overall point of view, together with a congressional system of deciding priorities." Following Nixon's impoundment Congress acted on these recommendations and in 1974 passed the Act over the President's veto.

Under the Bretton Woods agreement of 1944 the U.S. dollar was the only national currency directly backed by gold. Other currencies were valued against the dollar, which could be exchanged through the U.S. government's "gold window" for a fixed amount of gold. Over the course of the 1960s, however, this system came under strain. Spending on the Vietnam War and Great Society as well as the revival of Western Europe and Japan led to a decline in the U.S. balance of payments. This, in turn, placed significant pressure on the dollar: U.S. gold holdings could not keep pace with the expanded money supply required by domestic and international economic growth. Fearful that other governments would rush to convert their dollars into gold and thereby precipitate a run on the dollar, on August 15, 1971 Richard Nixon unilaterally suspended dollar-gold convertibility. This action, which Nixon presented as part of a plan to combat inflation, effectively ended the Bretton Woods monetary regime and brought about a system of floating exchange rates within a few years. The implications of the "Nixon shock" for domestic and international affairs were numerous. Since the dollar no longer had to be backed by gold, the end of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system increased the freedom of the U.S. Federal Reserve to engage in counter-cyclical monetary policy. The advent of floating exchange rates in 1973, after efforts to revive the fixed exchange rate regime failed, also facilitated global capital flows.

FURTHER INFORMATION:

Michael D. Bordo and Barry Eichengreen, eds., A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform (National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago Press, 1993).

Barry Eichengreen, Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System(Princeton University Press, 1996).

Francis J. Gavin, Gold, Dollars, and Power: The Politics of International Monetary Relations, 1958-1971 (University of North Carolina Press, 2004).

Joanne S. Gowa, Closing the Gold Window: Domestic Politics and the End of Bretton Woods (Cornell University Press, 1993).

Harold James, International Monetary Cooperation since Bretton Woods (International Monetary Fund and Oxford University Press, 1996).

Millenium Development Goals Progress 2012

Goal 1: Eradicating Extreme Poverty & Hunger (MDG)

Millenium Development Goals - What are they?

A Simple Explanation of the Economic Crisis in the US

Doha Round of WTO

The World Trade Organisation

Sustainable Development 101

International trade: Absolute and comparative advantage

The Great Depression Boom and Bust in America.wmv

The Crash of 1929

The history of the world trade system

A Brief History of International Trade

week 39

1. Memanglah dia turun padang. Tak dinafikan, dah ada resources turun padang. Tu pun dapat untung. Panggil orang tv buat liputan sana sini. Kalau takdak liputan, nak ke turun padang ? Yang paling penting, apa hasil turun padang itu ke atas pembangunan Wanita Melayu ? Hang habag mai !

week 38

1. Pengumuman Program Pemerkasaan Bumiputra oleh Najib umumnya dilihat sebagai usaha untuk memperkukuhkan kedudukannya di dalam parti UMNO menjelang pilihanraya parti Disember ini. Najib   dalam nada biasanya yang berdentum-dentum mengalahkan guruh di langit telah mengumumkan lima goodies untuk Bumiputra, Melayu khususnya. Sejauh mana benar Bumiputra akan diperkasakan dengan pengumuman yang berdentum-dentum ini, sama-samalah kita lihat kupasan ilmiah oleh blogawan-blogawan tersohor itu satu-persatu. Sebarang pautan dan nukilan yang dibuat dalam tugasanku (jika ada, akan disebut satu-persatu, insyaAllah).
2. Isnin 16 September adalah cuti umum. Ulangtahun pembentukan Malaysia yang ke-50. Sabah dan Sarawak menyertai Persekutuan Tanah Melayu dan membentuk Malaysia. (Nota: Singapura keluar dari Malaysia pada tahun 1965. Pada pendapat peribadiku, ini adalah gara-gara LKY perasan layak dan pulun sungguh nak jadi PM, dan gara-gara Tuanku AR yang panik terlebih). Sambutan ke-50 ini diadakan di Sarawak. Selepas PRU 13, Sabah dan Sarawak dilimpahi perhatian daripada Kerajaan Persekutuan. Hari Malaysia ini sangat bererti pasal pengumuman cuti umum ni pun gara-gara Najib nak glamer lebih setelah cubaan Anwar konon nak bentuk kerajaan telah terlungkup (seperti biasa, semua plan Anwar gagal. Such a loser).
3. Chin Peng meninggal (di Bangkok) pun jadi bahan perbatuan politik. DAP kata, kena benarkan pelesit ini dibawa masuk dan dikebumikan di Malaysia. Macam-macam..
4. Gesaan supaya kerusi-kerusi penting MT UMNO dipertandingkan semakin vokal. Dr M sekurang-kurangnya dah gesa yang tua-tua di kalangan ahli MT dulu supaya jangan lagi bertanding. Bagilah can dekat yang muda-muda pulak..
5. Hanezam thinking (day-dreaming ?) aloud : apa kata mereka yang benar-benar ikhlas berjuang untuk parti itu tubuhkan satu team. Lepas tu, senaraikan dengan jelas siapa calon untuk setiap kerusi yang dipertandingkan, bermula dengan kerusi Presiden dan seterusnya. Kemudian, hendaklah mereka ini membuat pengisytiharan bahawa sekiranya team mereka terpilih, 

• mereka akan pastikan tiada lagi rasuah dalam parti, dan kabinet baru yang akan dibentuk semula (jika ada) akan memastikan tiada rasuah dalam penganugerahan projek-projek kerajaan
• mereka  akan memulakan amalan governance yang telus tidak sepertimana yang pernah diamalkan selama ini. Bagi tau setiap projek dapat kat sapa. Hentikanlah makan rasuah. Kita semua akan mati dan menghadap Allah.
• Agenda Islam orang Melayu jangan dilupa. Tolonglah ikrar untuk hentikan gayahidup hedonistik yang dididik dan diasuh oleh rangkaian-rangkaian televisyen Malaysia. Tolong ikrar bahawa pakaian artis/aktress yang buah dada terbonjol akan dihentikan serta-merta. 
• Nyatakan dengan jelas apakah pendirian anda tentang Israel, Amerika, LBGT, etc.

Inilah masanya. Peluang ini tidak akan datang lagi. Inilah bot terakhir. Selepas PRU 14 nanti, semuanya akan sudah hancur berkecai. Paling elok jika team idaman ini disokong dan diketengahkan oleh Dr M. Masih ramai yang sayangkan Dr M. Jika dulu Dr M tiada kawalan tentang rasuah yang mula berputik dalam eranya, inilah masanya Dr M menebus penyesalan masa lalu beliau itu. Tolonglah wahai Dr M. Please.. please.. please... Time is running out. Ya Tuhan, aku sungguh kerdil, tapi aku punya angan-angan amat besar ya Tuhan..



Blog dalam Blog

Terpanas minggu ini agaknya tentulah analisis terhadap Pemerkasaan Bumiputra Najib 14 September yang berlangsung di alma materku, UiTM di Hatiku. Ramai yang skeptik. Aku seharusnya lebih skeptik. Takkan nak terima bulat-bulat. Hmm...siap kau. Banyak ramuan nih nak uli, nak canai, nak rampai ..

week 37

1. Wild guessing is really hard work. When you are outside the loop, you read the news and leave it to your intuition whether to believe. Now,  the news I want to read and believe. Something is definitely brewing; read about it here. On a sadder note, it may also mean power brokering is here to stay, to interweave in the Malay politics for much longer time. Democracy is a crap.

   

   Susah jugak nak jadi PM, no ?

2. Is Democracy innate in Islam ? I would love to think so, despite not having done any  reading on it.  Here is a piece on "Islam and Democracy" (read here) to trigger the discussion.

   

   Betul ke ?

3. Presently something I want to memorize. Communists had lent support in DAP winning the 1969 general election.  (Kit Siang's denial here) I have read the Tan Sri's book, Nation Before Self. Would like to add my personal notes here : PAS was part of the opposition then. No wonder a religious figure like Mat Indra led his people to fight for communists during  his time.
   
4. The list goes on. A former air force personnel dead after three shots at head. Ex-EO detainee shot dead after temple ceremony. I am hoping Zahid Hamidi the correct man for the task. Police has detained more than 4,000 persons under Ops Cantas Khas. I don't know, you control drug trafficking, you control the secret societies. Police force has been inactive for two decades. Draconian Laws do have their uses in this part of the world. For a contra view read here.
5. Are you still mad about the recent petrol price hike ? Honestly, I am not that mad, because I think my business still can absorb it, and the subsequent hikes in food prices etc. But I put on the strike last week in support of those who are unhappy about it. And for the rationale behind  their objection. Madam S was certainly mad about it, and about her being edited on air. Petrol price hike, commencing 12pm 3rd September 2013. RON 97, I later found out, followed suit;  increase of 14 sen a liter. The governmnet says it  is part of subsidy rationalization. Seems like an irrational act to me. Read about frustration and anger over the hike.  
6. Frustrating ! Azalina is not contesting. What Rafidah says.